Update Black Friday, November 27th, 2009

5:30pm

(Added at 1:20pm, Saturday, November 28th. My apologies. My reference to the COT numbers is incorrect. The latest COT report has been delayed until this coming Monday so the numbers I’m referring to are out dated.)

I wonder how much of this decline was due to a strong $USD rather than news out of Dubai. I fully expected the PPT to come in and rescue the market today given that such a move would have sent a strong message to the rest of the world, but they didn’t show. Or maybe they did which is why the bottom didn’t fall out.

IWM and XLF did a full day’s worth of volume. SPY & IYR did a healthy chunk, considering the short day.

$NYUPV = 22. That’s a climax buy signal. In fact, that’s the lowest reading on $NYUPV in a year

$NYDNV = 631. That’s not enough.

$NYUD = -609. Should be down around -1400.

$NYAD = -2104. That’s a climax buy signal.

Two of the A/D quartet say expect a bounce on Monday, but two others are not oversold enough, yet. I think two is probably enough to initiate some kind of bounce on Monday, but all four would be better. The bounce, should there be one, might be more like the bounce of Nov 2nd rather than the bounce on October 29th. If there is any news over the weekend, positive or negative, concerning Dubai, then have to expect market to move accordingly.

Intra-day P/C ratio hit 1.11 early, which was apparently enough to halt the sell off, among other factors, I’m sure.

$TRIN reading off the charts. Probably not reliable. I have one spike that went from 46 to 82 and then closed at 17. That 17 is more reliable and does indicate panic selling. $TRIN close at 4.49 says panic selling into the close.

$CYC down 2.10% due gold’s big drop and with it FCX, which is about 6.5% of the $CYC. FCX wasn’t alone, of course.

If the market does react to these oversold conditions on Monday, then that’s great if the market can get some traction in the days following such a rally. But with the market more or less rotting from the inside out, it’s going to be tough to sustain a rally for any length of time.

The commercial hedgers remain 60k shares net short the large contract S&P Futures. Maybe they covered a boat load of short contracts today. Maybe they added to their short exposure.

Looks like more dojis for weekly charts of almost everything. IWM & XLF still in sell mode based on those weekly charts.

Summation Indexes for the $NYSE and the $COMPQ had some pretty heavy down ticks today with their McClellan Oscillators dropping deep into bearish territory.

The wild card is going to be the $USD.

Three of the four indicators for the SG’s for the $SPX and the $COMPQ reversed today.

Current status for the SG’s for the $SPX and the $COMPQ:

Unconfirmed, Phase III sell signal.

My preliminary calculation for the SG takes it to -22.9. Wednesday’s reading was -10, which I forgot to put up on Wednesday and which was up from Tuesday’s -15. So that down tick today was very powerful.

This is not the time to try and be a hero. Be careful. Let the dust settle.

8:50pm

Below is the SG chart for the $SPX. It shows a change of direction with a 12 point move south. Based on the movement in the A Indicator, the most sensitive and fastest moving indicator, today’s move is nowhere near a climax move. The $NYUPV and $NYAD may be giving climax signals and since Monday’s seem to be gap up days, those signals may be correct for a one-day bounce, but the SG says that’s about all that can be expected, at least for the moment.

If you really want to see where the big problem is, take a look at $NAA150R over at Stock Charts. Until the deterioration in the Nasdaq, $RUT, and Financials ceases, then you just have to expect more pressure on the markets in general.