Update November 18th, 2009

6:50pm

The reading in the SG of the $SPX is -28 today. Yesterday it was -34 so it is drawing closer and closer to the zero line. But that’s not the whole story. The C Indicator showed a slight loss of momentum today. The others look fine.

Current status for the SG for the $SPX:

Moderating, partially confirmed, Phase IV, buy/hold signal.

Current status for the SG for the $COMPQ:

Moderating, partially confirmed, Phase IV, buy/hold signal.

IYR made a very nice recovery today, but did so on light volume.  Today’s move will need to be confirmed tomorrow…with volume. I don’t like the sector but I do watch it.

Today’s big story is the $TRAN. The transports came down just a little today but did so on a little bit heavier volume. The transports have been very good over the past several months at starting pull backs a couple of days ahead of the general market. The small drop in the transports today might not lead to anything, but it’s going to be important to watch them closely over the next few days. FDX came down hard but the volume wasn’t there. The airlines, AMR, CAL, LUV were also down pretty hard. The sector doesn’t look that weak, but it could tomorrow or Friday.

And wouldn’t you know it. THEY took IWM above 60 in the last 15min of the day. I just knew they wouldn’t let IWM close below 60, but I don’t know that it means a whole lot at this point.

What’s bothering me again today are $NYA50R, $SPXA50R, & $NAA50R. These are all trying to roll over from already low levels.  42% of $COMPQ stocks are below their 50MA’s.  This is not healthy. Even on a less than 1/2% pull back day like today, the $NAA50R should not have dropped, but it did. This is a symptom of internal weakness.  And it’s the same in the other indexes. Fewer and fewer stocks are participating.

Yesterday and today, advancers fell behind decliners in the $NYSE 12:17. I can understand today, but yesterday the markets closed green.  The Summation Indexes for the $NYSE and the $COMPQ are still moving up but the McClellan Oscillators for each are now pointing straight down.  The $VIX seems to be dropping like a rock and the P/C ratio at .84 says that complacency reigns. Maybe everything will resolve tomorrow with a broad based rally on good volume. Maybe not. And don’t forget that lurking out there somewhere is a huge net short position in the S&P futures. When are those guys going to make a move?

And when was the last time you saw the $NDX at the head of a southbound train?

Just be careful right now.

Adding the following at about 7:10pm

Look at the histogram on the $NDX and the $TRAN. You can see the same thing, though not as pronounced, in several other key indexes.